As Democrats face a presidential race against a resurgent and resilient Donald J. Trump, as well as a brutally challenging Senate map, they believe they have an increasingly powerful political weapon: ballot measures to protect abortion rights.
Two crucial presidential and Senate battlegrounds, Arizona and Nevada, are expected to present such measures directly to voters. The same goes for other states with key Senate races, including Maryland and potentially Montana. And abortion rights measures are on the table or could appear on the ballot in states like New York, Florida and Nebraska, where competitive races could help determine whether Democrats win back the House.
Hopeful Democrats — and worried Republicans — are acutely aware that in all seven states where abortion has been put directly to voters since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the abortion rights side won, in both red states like Ohio and Kansas as well. like swing states like Michigan. These measures have sometimes fueled increases in liberal turnout that have also propelled Democratic candidates to victory.
So in every state where an abortion measure is already on the 2024 ballot or may yet appear, Democratic candidates, state parties and allied groups are campaigning furiously alongside ballot initiatives, running ads, helping to invest money in them and bringing the measures to the surface in the speech. after the speech.
In Arizona, where Democrats are trying to flip the legislature, the party’s candidates have gone so far as to collect signatures for the state’s ballot measure while knocking on voters’ doors.
“When the abortion petition initiative came out, it was a no-brainer that I was going to take it with me,” said Brandy Reese, a Democrat running for the Arizona House who said she gathered dozens of signatures during the campaign. “I present myself as a pro-choice candidate running, and you can instantly tell by people’s body language that they are excited to hear that.”
The wave of abortion referendums — some of which are not yet officially on the ballot, but most of which have enough signatures to get there, organizers say — is adding new unpredictability to an election season already convulsed by criminal cases and painful issues. of Trump. about the future of the country’s democracy.
With polls showing that most Americans believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases, the measures could serve as a political lifeboat at a time when President Biden faces stubbornly low approval ratings and skepticism. within your party. Democrats hope the ballot initiatives will increase turnout among core voters such as suburban women, young people and African Americans.
“Ballot initiatives are well-funded, well-organized efforts,” said Christina Freundlich, a Democratic strategist. “This is creating a tremendous sense of energy not only within the Democratic Party, but among voters across the board.”
Party leaders are echoing that message.
“The momentum is on our side,” Vice President Kamala Harris said at an abortion rights event Wednesday in Jacksonville, Florida. “Just think about it: Since Roe was overturned, every time reproductive freedom has been voted on, the people of America have voted for freedom.”
In addition to electoral politics, electoral initiatives relating to abortion aroused enormous interest and participation due to their direct impact on voters’ lives. In Florida, for example, a recently imposed ban on nearly all abortions in the state has cut off a critical access point for patients across the Southeast. In Arizona, lawmakers this week repealed a near-total abortion ban — but the state is now poised to impose a 15-week ban, with no exceptions for rape or incest.
Doctors have also expressed concerns about facing criminal penalties under the bans.
“The fear of this is just devastating,” said Mona Mangat, board chair of the Committee to Protect Health Care, an advocacy group that supports ballot initiatives in several states. “It will be devastating for providers and devastating for patients.”
Mangat said the restrictions could affect doctors’ decisions to move to those states to practice medicine or attend residency programs.
In Nevada, abortion is legal within the first 24 weeks of pregnancy. Organizers are collecting signatures to put an amendment on the ballot that would establish the right to abortion in the State Constitution. The state’s top Democrats, including Sen. Jacky Rosen, who faces a tight re-election fight, signed the petition.
Rep. Dina Titus, another Nevada Democrat, said in an interview that the change would still motivate voters to turn out, especially young people, even without the driving force of overturning far-reaching restrictions.
“We will talk about this in terms of how this will actually protect women,” Titus said. “And we’ll use that to get young women and just young people in general to the polls because suddenly they’re going to realize that something they took for granted is not going to be available.”
Republican candidates and their allies appear reluctant to directly campaign against ballot measures to protect abortion rights, although some Republican leaders have expressed opposition. In Ohio, Gov. Mike DeWine recorded a video opposing the state’s initiative last year, and in Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis said the current ballot measure is too broad. “Destroying parental consent for minors is completely unacceptable,” he said at an event last month.
Some Republicans openly fear that restrictive measures like those in Florida could favor Democrats, given the way abortion referenda have played out in recent cycles.
“For me, Kansas and Ohio are what everyone should be looking at,” said Vicki Lopez, a state representative from Miami who was one of the few Republican lawmakers to vote against Florida’s six-week ban. Voters will now decide in November whether to add the right to abortion to the State Constitution, with a question known as Amendment Four. “This will be a test.”
But Lopez added that it would be a mistake to assume that “everyone who votes for Amendment Four will actually vote for Biden.”
Regardless, Democrats believe they have the upper hand. In a memo last month, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee wrote that “reproductive freedom will continue to be a defining issue for voters this November” and that the group would “ensure that House Republicans’ efforts to ban the abortion across the country be the priority as voters head to the polls.”
The DCCC said it has identified 18 competitive House seats in states where abortion measures are likely to be on the ballot. Republicans are trying to protect a slim majority in the House.
Money for ballot measures has cascaded in from both large liberal groups and small donors. Some so-called dark money organizations, whose donors are not disclosed, have contributed millions, including the Open Society Policy Center, the Sixteen Thirty Fund and the Fairness Project. Other advocacy groups, such as Planned Parenthood and the American Civil Liberties Union, also contributed seven figures.
Think Big America, an abortion rights group founded by Governor JB Pritzker of Illinois, has spent heavily to support abortion initiatives. After spending $1 million in Ohio last year, he has already spent $1 million in Arizona and Nevada and made what he called a “quick investment” of $500,000 in Montana, where the issue has not yet come up for a vote in November. .
“This has the power not only to drive out Democrats, but also to ensure that people who have been on the fence – swing voters, independents, persuadable voters – come over to the side that has long believed in reproductive freedom,” said Michael . Ollen, executive director of Think Big America.
In Arizona, Gov. Katie Hobbs directed her well-funded state political action committee, Arizona Communities United, to focus heavily on the ballot initiative.
Hobbs, who navigated slim Republican majorities in the Legislature during the first two years of her term, has made flipping both chambers a key goal for 2024, and she sees the ballot measure as a central part of that effort.
In Nevada, the Biden campaign invited ballot initiative organizers to collect signatures at events with Jill Biden and Harris.
Delivering a speech at the state last month, Ms. Harris thanked the signature collectors in attendance. They responded by holding up their clipboards and applauding.
“We are going to win this electoral initiative,” said the vice president. “And Joe Biden and I are going back to the White House.”
Patricia Mazzei contributed reports.
