Many top wide receivers got new contracts this offseason and the market was just reset by the best in the business – Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings. He agreed to a new deal worth $140 million over the next four years, which includes $110 million guaranteed. That makes him the highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL right now.
Jefferson’s massive new contract is a significant development for any quality receiver who will be ready for a new deal in the coming years — and that includes DK Metcalf of the Seattle Seahawks. Metcalf signed a three-year, $72 million extension two years ago. Although he is under contract for 2025 with a cap hit of around $29.5 million, chances are the team and Metcalf will begin negotiations on a new deal next offseason.
Metcalf won’t be able to command the $35 million annual average that Jefferson is being paid, but factoring in inflation, fans should expect his next contract to be in the $30 million annual range – similar to Amon-Ra’s recent deals St. Hill. Metcalf is an exceptional athlete and competitor, but it would be foolish not to at least pause and consider whether DK Metcalf is worth that much money.
Since being drafted, Metcalf has reliably recorded at least 900 yards and six touchdowns per season, topping out at 1,300 yards and 12 scores. It’s a very strong production, but you can’t escape the feeling that Metcalf hasn’t reached his limit yet, given his remarkable physical capabilities. This passing chart from the 2023 season illustrates some of the issues. This shows that Metcalf struggled in man coverage and had a very low EPA on deep throws.
A look at DK Metcalf’s 2023 season. 18th in total yards, but REALLY struggled against man coverage, and wasn’t as productive down the field as you’d hope. Had a reception% of 59% (136th in the league). DK looking for recovery in 2024. pic.twitter.com/WM2R9I8ctq
– Field Vision Sports (@FieldVisionMi) May 31, 2024
For one, Metcalf needs to increase his catch rate to 59% — which is also what ESPN is projecting him to do next season. With his size and vertical leaping ability, Metcalf should beat the vast majority of cornerbacks on deep jump balls – but he has yet to do so consistently in his career.
If Metcalf can step up in 2024 and finally post some real numbers among the top 10 wide receivers, as we know he can, he will be well worth that kind of money. Until then, it’s up for debate.
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This story originally appeared on Seahawks Wire
