RFK Jr. Could Hit the Debate Stage, Leaving the Worms Aside: CNN Analysis

CNN
–

The 2024 election cycle got a lot weirder this week when it was revealed that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. once had a worm enter and eat part of his brain. Kennedy, who says he has recovered from his wounds caused by the worm, continued claim that he could eat “5 more brain worms and still beat” former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden in a debate.

Such stories and quotes might make you think that Kennedy is a sideshow in this election year, but nothing could be further from the truth.

An analysis of the polls reveals that Kennedy is polling better than any independent candidate since Ross Perot in 1996, although many of his own supporters are unsure what he stands for. And he will be able to do what Perot failed to do before him in 1996: spark the fall debates against the major party candidates.

Last week, a CNN/SSRS poll made news by painting a dire picture for Biden. He trailed Trump by 6 points in a one-on-one matchup. Trump’s lead jumped to 9 points over Biden when Kennedy, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West were included in the vote. Less publicized was that Kennedy polled 16%.

There hasn’t been a single poll that has Green Party nominee Ralph Nader in 2000 or Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson in 2016 with this level of support.

This 16% is important because the voting threshold for candidates to be included in the fall presidential debates has been 15% for the past 24 years. While other polls have not been as kind to Kennedy, virtually all of them show him reaching double digits when he is a named option.

(To make it to the debate stage, candidates must also appear on state ballots, totaling at least 270 electoral votes. This seems more than doable for Kennedy.)

The poll average will be crucial because Kennedy will need to have an average of 15% to make the debates. So far, Kennedy has averaged about 13% in polls of media entities that the commission included in its 2020 average.

I should point out that third-party and independent candidates tend to see their poll numbers decline over the course of the campaign. This year, I’m not sure that’s anywhere near guaranteed, as Biden and Trump have significantly higher negative ratings than positive ones.

That said, Kennedy is relatively unknown. An NBC News poll, which explicitly offers “neutral” and “don’t know” as an option, found that a plurality (39%) said “neutral” or “don’t know” when voters evaluated Kennedy. Among those with a positive or negative opinion, 29% gave a negative opinion and 32% gave a positive opinion.

That -3 net rating was actually the best of any public figure tested by NBC News in that poll. Trump and Biden came in with net ratings of -15 points and -14 points, respectively.

But given that 39% of voters still didn’t have an opinion of Kennedy – positive or negative – his net rating can best be described as “soft.”

In fact, I’m not even sure if your supporters or potential supporters understand your platform. Kennedy was criticized by many for his unfounded views on vaccines and Covid-19. It was one of the first things written about him when he declared he was running for president last year.

A recent Monmouth University poll informed voters that Kennedy “supports claims that autism is linked to vaccines and has said Covid targets people of certain races” and asked if they were aware of these positions before taking the vote. .

Only 55% of voters knew about Kennedy’s beliefs. The most interesting thing is that only 27% of people who said they would definitely or probably support Kennedy indicated that they were aware of these positions. The vast majority, 73%, did not do so.

In other words, people who were potential Kennedy supporters did not know what many people would consider to be a key part of his portfolio of positions. The voters who knew most about Kennedy’s positions were those who said they would definitely vote against him.

Now, it’s quite possible that Kennedy voters will support him as they hear more about his positions. (The Monmouth poll suggested this was a real possibility.) For many, Kennedy may be more than his stance on the vaccine.

The fact that so some of his potential supporters were aware of the statements about the vaccine and Covid-19, however, it points to the fact that he remains largely undefined. He could be more vulnerable to ad attacks from opponents than the usual presidential candidate.

This is in line with what we have seen from Trump and his supporters: they are going after Kennedy.

After all, most national polls have shown that Kennedy voters prefer Trump to Biden, although not uniformly. An average of recent polls from CNN and Quinnipiac University puts Trump in a double-digit position in a two-way race among those who chose Kennedy when third-party and independent candidates are included.

This may not seem like much, and it usually wouldn’t be. But in a country where elections have been so close recently, any little thing can make a difference.

Don’t expect Biden or Trump to allow Kennedy to surprise them. For now, Kennedy remains a viable option for many Americans. We’ll see if it continues like this.