NFL Draft 2024: What experts got wrong, including Cowboys passing RB and Falcons curveball
Draft season lasts a long time. This gives prognosticators plenty of chances to guess how things will turn out. Experts often get it right. Everyone knew Caleb Williams would be number 1. Everyone knew the first round would be extremely offensive. Everyone knew the offensive tackle and wide receiver classes were excellent.
But of course there were also things that the design experts got wrong. In the space below, we will detail some of these failures.
No trade-downs in the top five
Throughout the pre-draft process, there were rumors that one or more teams in the top five would be traded, with any number of other teams looking to move up and take one of the top quarterbacks. Rumors about the Commanders trading No. 2 quickly faded, but up until draft day it was thought that the Patriots might move down from No. 3 and that the Cardinals and Chargers might be interested in trading for No. 3. of 5, respectively. But none of that happened. Everyone in the top five stayed and picked, with Williams going No. 1 to Chicago, Jayden Daniels going No. 2 to Washington, Drake Maye going No. 3 to New England, Marvin Harrison Jr. 5 to Los Angeles.
It was widely believed that Williams would be No. 1, and that Daniels and Maye, in some order, would be the second and third defenders off the board – if not necessarily Nos. 2 and 3. But it was also a near-universal belief that McCarthy would be the next QB selected, whether by a team like the Giants at No. 6 overall, or by someone jumping into the top five via trade. Instead, McCarthy lasted until the 10th pick, and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. was actually the fourth quarterback taken, landing in Atlanta. By the way …
Falcons landing first defensive player
Almost everyone had the Falcons with a defensive player. Maybe it was Dallas Turner of Alabama or Terrion Arnold or Quinyon Mitchell of Toledo or Byron Murphy II of Texas. Few signed them for an offensive player, and even fewer signed them for a quarterback. But that’s exactly what happened when the Falcons shocked the world – and their newly acquired starting quarterback, Kirk Cousins – by drafting Penix at No. 8 overall.
The window for Bowers to come off the board apparently began at No. 9 with the Bears, even though they seemed more likely to get a receiver than a tight end. But the Broncos, at No. 12, were considered a possible landing spot, along with teams like the Colts, Bengals and Rams, a little lower in the teens. But almost no one connected him to the Raiders, who selected Michael Mayer in the second round of last year’s draft. Las Vegas investing two premium picks at the tight end position in consecutive seasons was a big surprise.
There was widespread agreement that Mitchell would be a first-round pick. For most of the draft process, he was considered ahead of his former Texas teammate Xavier Worthy. And there were rumors that Franklin might be late first or early second. Instead, Mitchell fell to the Colts in the second half of the first round, while Franklin fell to the fourth, where he was snatched up by former Oregon teammate Bo Nix’s new team, the Broncos.
Cowboys drafting a running back
There was perhaps no more obvious need heading into draft season than the one the Cowboys had in the backfield. Texas’ Jonathon Brooks was a popular name linked to them frequently in the second round, along with Florida State’s Trey Benson, Wisconsin’s Braelon Allen and Tennessee’s Jaylen Wright. But not only did the Cowboys not draft any of those players — and passed on Allen, Wright and several others late in the third round — they also didn’t draft any running backs. Their only addition to the backfield was undrafted free agent Nathaniel Peat from Missouri. And of course, they are re-signing Ezekiel Elliott, who has been in steep decline for years and is no longer considered a quality replacement for anyone other than Jerry Jones.
