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The Astros appear to have overpaid. Sending two talented youngsters with major league time and another top minor league prospect to Toronto in exchange for Yusei Kikuchi, an impending free agent rental starter, is a bit rich for how the market has played out so far this deadline.
To be clear, the Astros should go all out. That’s not the point here. Houston entered Monday’s game tied with the Mariners atop the AL West. They’ve admirably climbed their way out of a precipice after a slow start in 2024. When you employ guys like José Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yordan Álvarez, the World Series is always a reality. This club has made seven consecutive ALCS appearances for a reason.
The Astros also correctly addressed an area of need on their roster: starting pitchers. A litany of injuries has left Houston’s rotation criminally understaffed. But the issues here are (1) the player they acquired and (2) the price they paid.
Yusei Kikuchi is a quality MLB starter who should fit well into Houston’s rotation and put up innings down the stretch. But is he starting a postseason game for the Astros? Unless the still-frozen Justin Verlander isn’t healthy in October, probably not. Verlander, Framber Valdez, and a pair of standout players in Ronel Blanco and Hunter Brown would all be ahead of Kikuchi on the list. The 33-year-old Japanese lefty started the season well, but his secondary pitching has been completely butchered this year, and considering he’s a free agent at the end of the season, the price Houston paid seems steep to me.
Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner are all in Triple-A or have major league time. This indicates that Toronto is more interested in an upgrade than a rebuild, which makes sense considering Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remain under contract for next season. So who are these guys?
Bloss struggled in a three-game debut for Houston this season, but take those numbers with a whole pillar of salt. The 23-year-old right-hander was drafted out of Georgetown University last season and was rushed to the big leagues as a result of Houston’s injury issues. He has a mid-90s heater with excellent carry, giving him a great floor to be a rotation option in the future. There’s more work to be done here, but he’s under the team’s control until the sun melts.
From a physical perspective, Loperfido smells a bit like Cody Bellinger. He’s obviously not as good, but there’s some athleticism to like with the big-swinging OF/1B. The former Duke Blue Devil also debuted this year and was more blah than disastrous, though he did have a cringe-inducing strikeout rate. If he can reduce some of the whiff in the zone, he could become a decent everyday player.
Wagner, the son of former MLB finalist Billy Wagner, is more of a bench guy with good swing decisions and limited power.
When you consider that Kikuchi will hit the open market at the end of the season and compare Toronto’s outcome to the underwhelming return the White Sox got for a more sought-after starter like Erick Fedde, it’s hard not to see this as an overpayment on Houston’s part.
