NEW DELHI (AP) — Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s coalition led the most seats Tuesday in General elections in Indiaaccording to partial figures, but faced a stronger challenge from the opposition than expected, having weathered the leader’s mixed economic record and political polarization.
Modi was still expected to be elected to a third five-year term in the largest democratic exercise in the world – even as an ongoing count showed that his Hindu nationalist party might not achieve a majority on its own, despite pre-election hopes of a landslide victory.
More than 50 countries go to the polls in 2024
If this trend continues, it will be a stunning blow to the 73-year-old leader, who has never been in a position where he needed to rely on his coalition partners to govern.
The count of more than 640 million votes cast over six weeks was expected to take all day, and early numbers could change.
In his 10 years in power, Modi transformed India’s political landscape, bringing Hindu nationalismonce a marginal ideology in Indiainto the mainstream, leaving the country deeply divided.
His supporters see him as a strong, self-made leader who has improved India’s standing in the world. His critics and opponents say his Hindu politics first they generated intolerance and at the same time the economy, the fifth largest in the world and one of the fastest growing, became more unequal.
Some 10 hours counting, partial counts reported by the Election Commission of India showed that Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party was ahead in 196 constituencies and won 45, including one uncontested, of the 543 parliamentary seats. The main opposition party in Congress led in 83 constituencies and won 15.
A total of 272 seats are needed to obtain a majority. In 2019, the BJP won 303 seats, while it secured 282 in 2014 when Modi first came to power.
Modi’s party is part of the National Democratic Alliance, whose members led in 236 constituencies and won 50, according to the partial count. The Congress Party is part of the INDIA Alliancewho led in 211 constituencies and won 19.
The Electoral Commission does not publish data on the percentage of votes counted.
Exit polls over the weekend projected the NDA to win more than 350 seats. Indian markets, which hit an all-time high on Monday, closed sharply lower on Tuesday, with the benchmark equity indices – the NIFTY 50 and the BSE Sensex – both falling over 5%.
Congress party supporters celebrate as they watch the vote counting process at the party headquarters in New Delhi, India, Tuesday, June 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)
For Payal, a resident of the northern city of Lucknow who uses only one name, the election was about the economy and the large number of people living in poverty in India.
“People are suffering, there are no jobs, people are in such a state that their children are forced to make and sell tea on the roadside,” Payal said. “This is a big deal for us. If we don’t wake up now, when will we wake up?”
If Modi wins, it will be only the second time that an Indian leader has held power for a third term, after Jawaharlal Nehru, the country’s first prime minister.
But if his BJP is forced to form a coalition, the party will likely “become heavily dependent on the goodwill of its allies, which makes them critical actors who we can expect will extract their fair share of meat, both in terms of policymaking as government formation,” said Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“This would truly be uncharted territory for both Indians and the Prime Minister,” he added.
Before Modi came to power, India had coalition governments for 30 years. His BJP always had a majority on its own, although it still governed in a coalition.
Extreme heat reached India as voters went to the polls. Although temperatures were slightly cooler on Tuesday, election officials and political parties still transported large quantities of water and installed outdoor air coolers for people awaiting results.
Outside the BJP party headquarters in New Delhi, supporters beat drums and bells as the count took place. Previously, party workers performed a Hindu ritual. Meanwhile, supporters at the Congress Party headquarters appeared optimistic and chanted slogans praising Rahul Gandhi, the face of the party’s campaign.
Over 10 years in power, Modi’s popularity surpassed that of his party and turned a parliamentary election into one that increasingly resembled a presidential style campaign. The result is that the BJP increasingly depends on Modi’s lasting brand to stay in power, with local politicians taking a back seat even in state elections.
“Modi was not just the main activist, but the only activist of this election,” said Yamini Aiyar, a public policy scholar.
The country’s democracy, Modi’s critics say, is faltering under his government, which has increasingly used strong-arm tactics to subdue political opponents, pressure independent media outlets and stifle dissent. The government has rejected such accusations and maintains that democracy is flourishing.
And economic discontent has increased under Modi. As stock markets reach historic highs and millionaires multiply, youth unemployment has soared, with only a small portion of Indians benefiting from the boom.
With polls opening in mid-April, an initially confident BJP focused your campaign about “Modi’s guarantees”, highlighting the economic and welfare achievements that his party claims have reduced poverty. With him at the helm, “India will become a developed nation by 2047,” Modi repeated at rally after rally.
But the campaign became increasingly strident as Modi ramped up the polarizing rhetoric aimed at Muslims, who represent 14% of the population, a tactic seen to energize his core Hindu-majority voters.
The INDIA opposition alliance has attacked Modi over his Hindu nationalist politics and campaigned on issues of unemployment, inflation and inequality.
But the broad alliance of more than a dozen political parties has been beset by ideological differences and defections, raising questions about its effectiveness. Meanwhile, the alliance also stated that it was unfairly targeted, pointing to a series of raids, arrests and corruption investigations against its leaders by federal agencies that they say are politically motivated. The government denied this.
In the financial capital of Mumbai, Mangesh Mahadeshwar was one of many surprised by the turn of the elections.
“Yesterday we thought the BJP would win more than 400 seats,” said the 52-year-old man who was following the results at the restaurant where he works. “Today it looks like that won’t happen – people weren’t as supportive of the BJP this time.”
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Associated Press journalists David Rising in New Delhi and Rafiq Maqbool in Mumbai, India, contributed to this story.
