India could be eliminated from T20 World Cup Super 8 – all scenarios explained
It is highly unlikely that India will lose the semi-finals in this position, but not impossible.©AFP
Afghanistan’s shock victory over former champions Australia has left Group 1 wide open as far as the T20 World Cup semi-finals are concerned. After India defeated Bangladesh on Saturday, Australia needed a win over Afghanistan to join them on four points. Australia’s victory would have guaranteed both teams a place in the semi-finals ahead of Monday’s match. However, a spirited performance from Afghanistan, who also came close to defeating Australia last year during the ODI World Cup, means all four teams could still qualify for the next stage heading into the final round of games.
Here are the qualification scenarios for the Group 1 semi-finals:
India (4 points, 2 games; NRR +2.4)
For Rohit Sharma and company, the equation is simple. Beat Australia. This would make the Afghanistan vs Bangladesh game irrelevant for them.
It is highly unlikely that they will lose the semi-finals in this position, but not impossible.
India could be left out if Australia and Afghanistan win by large margins.
Australia need to beat India by 41 runs to surpass them on Net Run Rate (NRR), while Afghanistan will have to beat Bangladesh by at least 83 runs.
In case of defeat, India will pass, as no other team can score five points.
Australia (2 points, 2 games; NRR +0.22)
To reach the semi-finals, Australia must first beat India. So the side would expect Bangladesh to beat Afghanistan.
Even if Australia loses the final game by a narrow margin, they will be in the semi-final race.
In this case, Australia will need Bangladesh to defeat Afghanistan by such a margin that both teams’ NRRs remain lower than Australia’s.
Australia will also have a chance if the match against India is abandoned.
Australia will then need Bangladesh to beat Afghanistan or for the match between the two to be abandoned.
Afghanistan (2 points, 2 games; NRR -0.65)
If India beats Australia and Bangladesh beats Afghanistan, three teams will be tied on two points each.
In this case, the NRR will have the final say. Australia currently has a better net execution rate than Afghanistan and Bangladesh.
If Afghanistan lose by one run, Australia will have to lose by 31 for their net run rate to fall below Afghanistan’s.
If Australia beat India by one run, Afghanistan would need a margin of 36 runs to advance ahead of them.
Similarly, if Australia win the final ball while chasing, Afghanistan will have to win the game in 15.4 overs or sooner (assuming the first innings score is 160).
In case of failure, Afghanistan would need a favor from India in the game against Australia.
Bangladesh (0 points, 2 matches; -2.48)
Bangladesh have the worst net run rate in the group and are in last place with zero points. However, they still have a chance of reaching the semi-finals.
They must win by 31 runs for their NRR to be ahead of Afghanistan, and also expect Australia to lose by at least 55 runs, to finish second.
A defeat or failure in any of these games will end the campaign.
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