If Trump is found guilty, what will happen? He’s preparing voters for the worst

WASHINGTON — When former president and 2024 candidate Donald Trump claims the judicial system wants to put him in prison, he isn’t just protesting the ongoing silent trial.

Trump is also preparing voters for the possibility of a guilty verdict.

At political rallies, on social media and to reporters gathered at the New York courthouse, Trump’s attacks on the trial are intended, in part, to persuade voters to disregard a negative verdict, according to aides, legal analysts and a review of his comments. .

“New York’s judicial system has been absolutely abused,” Trump told reporters on Friday. “The whole world is watching.”

Trump is accused of improperly influencing the 2016 presidential election by paying secret money to women, seeking to prevent them from disclosing sexual liaisons. He pleaded not guilty.

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Trump targets moderate voters

Trump has not explicitly said he expects a guilty verdict and has occasionally expressed public optimism about the outcome of the trial. “A lot of good things are happening in the case,” the first said on Thursday.

But he has spent much more time alleging political bias on the part of the judge, prosecutors and jury, and argues without evidence that his political opponents will do anything to put him behind bars.

Trump and his supporters also predicted that a guilty verdict would be reversed upon appeal, a step that would not be necessary if he were acquitted or if there was a hung jury.

Legal experts said Trump has no choice but to prepare for a guilty verdict, given how it could affect his campaign against President Joe Biden.

In claiming the trial is unfair, Trump’s targets include moderate and independent voters who have long been skeptical of his behavior.

“His base will believe everything he says,” said Bradley P. Moss, a Washington, D.C., lawyer who specializes in government transparency issues. “The question is independent.”

Trump appeals to New Jersey

Trump’s latest effort to prepare supporters for bad legal news comes Saturday at a campaign rally in Wildwood, NJ

This will be Trump’s first campaign rally since an event at the Freeland, Michigan, airport on May 1, where he spoke at length about his legal concerns.

When discussing the ongoing trial in New York, Trump said “we haven’t had a decision here, but the decision here can probably only be one thing, I think… because… this whole thing – it’s a sham deal; it’s a fraudulent agreement.”

Trump also compared the hush money trial to the major civil cases he lost, one over bank loan fraud and two others over defamation and sexual abuse of writer E. Jean Carroll.

In total, civil courts ordered Trump to pay more than $500 million in damages.

“We hope to win all of this easily on appeal,” Trump said at one point in Michigan.

‘Orchestrating Trump’s conviction’

Trump is also trying to dismiss the New York verdict by citing legal analysts who agree with his criticism of the case. Some of them say they believe Trump is doomed to a guilty verdict because of the way the trial is being handled by New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan.

In a May 5 Truth Social post, Trump cited comments from former federal prosecutor Andrew McCarthy that described “how Judge Merchan is orchestrating Trump’s conviction.”

Trump also attacks the gag order against him, describing it as an attempt to resolve the case. Merchan concluded that Trump violated the gag order on ten items regarding attacks on witnesses and court personnel.

Reading criticism of the case on Friday, Trump said he needs to be careful because of the gag order: “If I mention the wrong word, they’re going to come here and take me somewhere locked up, because that’s how it is with this judge – he wants to show how tough he is.”

Rerun: Trump previously warned of accusations

The political world has seen this kind of drama in the courts before Trump was first indicted.

In late 2022 and early 2023, Trump prepared his supporters for the likelihood of indictments and sought to tarnish them in advance by condemning the investigations as politically motivated.

In June 2023, three months after the hush money indictment, Trump told a Republican group in New Hampshire that “there could be others coming,” and described them as “election interference.”

Trump ended up indicted in four separate criminal cases.

In addition to the silence case in New York, the former president faces trial in South Florida on charges of mishandling classified information, and two cases in Washington, D.C. and Georgia on federal and state charges, respectively, of attempting steal the 2020 election from Biden. .

Trump is trying to postpone the last three trials beyond Election Day on November 5th. He may succeed, leaving the New York case as his only trial during the election campaign.

Politically, the accusations may have helped Trump, at least with the radical Republican voters who fueled his momentum toward the 2024 presidential nomination.

The polls and primaries also reflected skepticism toward Trump among moderate and independent voters, some of whom continued to support former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley even after she dropped out of the race.

Political impact

Meanwhile, Trump is preparing for a real verdict in the New York case – and a political impact that is unknowable.

Jonathan Turley, a George Washington University law professor often cited by Trump, said the former president’s complaints about an “armed justice system” are legitimate.

Even if Trump is convicted, Turley said, he has a good chance of overturning the case on appeal because “the whole case is turning into a dumpster fire.”

Turley also said that “no one would bet on Trump being acquitted by a New York jury,” but it is possible that the jurors could deadlock and be unable to return any verdict.

Trump could legitimately celebrate a hung jury as a victory, he said.

Whatever the merits of the case, Moss said Trump was treated fairly by the judicial system. For example, Moss said any other defendant would be in prison right now for violating gag orders like Trump did. “In fact,” he said, “he was treated with kid gloves.”

Moss also said that while Trump’s base will stick with him no matter what, it’s hard to see how a guilty verdict would help him.

“I don’t see anything good in this for Trump,” Moss said. “The question is how much damage it does.”

Contribution: Bart Jansen