Grim picture for Rishi Sunak as Tories take election hit

There was a lot of noise and a lot of numbers.

And for many of us, we don’t get much sleep.

And there are even more results this weekend.

But how are things now?

First, terrible election results are becoming a dangerous habit for conservatives.

There were local elections last year.

Several elections since then.

The picture for Rishi Sunak has been consistently bleak.

If his mandate set out to have two objectives, to stabilize the government’s ship and revive the fortunes of the conservatives, it is fair to say that he achieved the first of them.

He pulls several political levers. He presents ideas with passion. And they seem to make virtually no difference to his or his party’s fortunes.

In contrast – and further denigrating the Tories’ mood – is Labour’s relatively recently discovered ability to win where they need to win in a general election.

They used to be pretty good at racking up a lot of votes in places where they already won, and not nearly enough votes in places where they didn’t.

This appears to be changing.

Surprisingly, however, there is no sign, at least, that this has triggered a conservative insurrection against the prime minister.

Why? Because the results for them are grim, but perhaps not grimmer than feared.

One senior figure suggested Conservative MPs were “remarkably cold”.

A former minister said the results were “not catastrophic” – while tacitly accepting that they pointed to a likely general election defeat.

Labor is confident of exactly that – that these results point to it being on track to win a majority when the whole country goes to the polls.

The Liberal Democrats see evidence of their ability to capitalize on the Tories’ misfortune; Reform the UK too.

And the Green Party’s steady rise in local politics continues.

In essence, these results cement the status quo – a dynamic Labor Party, the taciturn Conservatives, the smaller parties agitated.

This brings us to the main point – yes, the Tories are in a difficult position and Labor is in a strong position.

But remember, Labor has to do surprisingly well by any historical comparison to win a general election, and that continues to be the case.

It is this central fact – as well as the relative fortunes of the parties – that will shape the conversation between now and the general election.