WASHINGTON — Allan Lichtman, the historian who correctly predicted the results of nine of the 10 most recent presidential elections, argued Saturday that replacing President Joe Biden could cost Democrats the 2024 election.
Lichtman, a professor at American University, rejected the growing chorus of political pundits and Democratic activists who have called on Biden, 81, to withdraw from the presidential race after his disastrous debate performance last week against former President Donald Trump. The pivotal moment has raised new questions about Biden’s age and ability to serve a second term.
“This is a huge mistake. They’re not doctors. They don’t know if Biden is physically capable of serving a second term or not,” Lichtman said during an interview with CNN about calls to replace Biden. “This is all reckless nonsense.”
Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the past half century, except the 2000 election race, using a series of 13 historical or “key” factors.
The system includes four factors based on policy, seven on performance and two on the candidate’s personality. Lichtman said the party in power would need to lose six of those players, or “keys,” to lose the White House.
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Keys range from whether a candidate is a sitting president to the state of the economy and the presence of third-party candidates.
Debate performance, however, is not one of the factors that determines the outcome of an election, he argued. Lichtman pointed to historical examples, including the 1984 election, in which former President Ronald Reagan swept 49 states despite poor debate performance and concerns about his age.
When pressed about whether questions surrounding Biden’s age and mental acuity are “fundamentally different” from his metrics as president, Lichtman doubled down.
“Debate performances can be topped,” he said. “At the first sign of adversity, the cowardly Democrats want to throw their own sitting president under the bus. My God.”
Lichtman has not made his final prediction about who will win the 2024 presidential election.
