ACC Mailbag: Ramifications of Clemson Potential, FSU Exit, Plus North Carolina Politics

Welcome to Part 2 of our ACC mailbag with Brendan Marks, Grace Raynor, and Manny Navarro.

Thanks for all the great questions. We tried to stick to real football in Part 1, which aired on Friday. Today, we focus primarily on the off-field issues that dominate the conversation.

What will happen to the ACC if both FSU and Clemson announce this summer that they are leaving the conference, effective June 30, 2025? -Todd K.

Before we dive into all these questions about exits and realignment, let’s state that the story of ACC vs. FSU and Clemson by Chris Vannini is a must-read for background.

I believe the official date for Clemson and FSU to inform the ACC of their planned departures for the 2025 season would be August 15th. So would that mean we either get some form of court resolution regarding the granting of rights by then (probably not, considering this potentially affects college football conferences and not just the ACC) or the schools and league come to an agreement extrajudicial on exit fees (more likely). If it’s the latter, and FSU and Clemson part ways, ESPN will smartly decide in February not to acquire its ACC TV package until 2036. That would send the ACC into Pac-12 territory, forcing it to sign a longer TV deal. cheap beyond 2027 (without its two megastars) or a straight league split in which some could end up fleeing to the Big 12 or forming a new league.

My guess is that there will be a group of ACC schools that don’t make the SEC or Big Ten (or Big 12, which could end up being the winners here if they get some of the more desirable ACC teams) and that will want to stay together in some form and accept a cheapest TV deal to remain “mid-majors”. We can sit here and debate what those schools are – and come away with some hurt feelings – or you can just look at the TV ratings and markets from the last few years and put two and two together. Anyway, not everyone gets an invitation to the Big 2 or a Super League. If FSU or Clemson have to spend a few years in purgatory (the Big 12) to get to the SEC or Big Ten, they will do so to avoid the need to remain in the ACC until 2036.

I just don’t think we’ll see a 24-team Big Ten or a 24-team SEC in the future. Remember, the SEC’s TV deal goes with ESPN through 2033-34 and the Big Ten’s deal goes with CBS, NBC and Fox through 2029-30. There is no incentive for schools in these leagues to add more schools when they have such a huge financial advantage in college football — unless they are competing to sign top “free agent” schools like FSU and Clemson or another school (like Carolina of the North) they value. This essentially leaves the other ACC programs behind to find a solution to stay relevant and fund their athletic programs in some way. That’s why the ACC won’t give up completely. He must have learned something from the Pac-12’s mistakes. – Navarro

How do North Carolina politics play a role in the conference’s realignment with UNC and NC State? And does this prevent both schools from being separated, or do they both just need a landing spot if one or both schools decide to leave the ACC? – Isaiah N.

The short answer: it’s complicated. Basically, the North Carolina state legislature saw what happened in California two summers ago – when UCLA abruptly left the Pac-12 for the Big Ten and apparently surprised state leaders – and said, “We are not going to allow something similar to happen.” .

So in April, the UNC Board of Governors – which oversees the North Carolina system that includes North Carolina State and UNC-Chapel Hill – approved a policy change; state universities must now notify the system president of any desire to change conferences before doing so, including submitting a financial plan for the change. The system president can approve or veto the plan. If the president rejects it, the president of the proposing university will have to present a new plan. And even if the president of the system approves it, then the plan is transferred to the larger Government Council for a vote… and if the plan doesn’t get the necessary approval, it will still be rejected.

In effect, the new policy makes it more difficult for any school in the UNC system to change conferences. But most importantly, it doesn’t overtly state anything about the Wolfpack and Tar Heels remaining in the same conference.

This does not mean that this idea is out of mind. Last year, North Carolina House Speaker Tim Moore (R-Cleveland) told reporters that “Carolina and State should be in the same conference… I think there would be a lot of resistance to seeing them separated into different conferences.” (Moore graduated in 1992 from North Carolina.) The point is that, in terms of realignment, North Carolina — with its national brand, men’s basketball prowess and lofty academic reputation — is widely seen as a more valuable addition than than the state of North Carolina. In fact, some industry experts believe that North Carolina is the only remaining ACC brand with additive value to the SEC or Big Ten, since it (unlike Florida State and Clemson) resides in a state where none of the leagues is currently a member. So if North Carolina were to be poached by either of the Big 2 leagues, where would that leave North Carolina State? Where would this leave the rivalry between these two schools? And on a broader level, where would that leave the ACC?

All of this is a long way of saying that many influential people in the state do not want to see UNC and NC State divided. Case in point: This week, another bill was introduced in the state legislature that would require UNC and NC State to:

1. Play at least one between East Carolina, Charlotte and Appalachian State every year and play all three home and away in a six-year span.
2. Play each other at home or away every year.

It’s too early to know right now what kind of support this bill has, if any. But it is clear from the legislature’s general actions to this point that keeping the two rivals together is a priority in every way possible. – Brands

If you were named president of the ACC today and were also given a time machine, what would you go back and change to improve the state of the conference in 2024? How would the ACC compare to other conferences once you’re done? -Ethan D.

In addition to forcing Notre Dame to join the ACC – which we all know would never have happened because the ACC needs Notre Dame much more than the Irish need the ACC – I think I would have done everything in my power to convince the conference to change the his harmony and accepting that his future had to be in football.

The ACC is an incredible basketball conference, as we all know. But football is what makes the money. Starting in, say, 2005, I would hold face-to-face meetings with every ACC coach, president and athletic director and convince them that football recruiting would become the most important area in which they should invest over the next decade. I would tell them that the rumor is that the pesky SEC on the block went all in on recruiting, to the point where the bells and whistles were a little ridiculous, but that ACC teams would have to do the same. They would need to invest more in their football teams. Hire more people. Build your recruiting and assessment departments. Reinforce your facilities. Put a slide and a barber shop in the building. Learn teen lingo better than ever so 16 year olds can relate to them.

Clemson and Florida State would listen, and it would pay off for them in the 2010s. But I would implore the rest of the league to do the same and make it their mission to prove that the ACC wasn’t just a one-dimensional league. I would implore them to care about the SEC’s every step. – Raynor

Which ACC teams will be part of the Superliga? We will only have 32 teams in three years. – Ursula D.

Clemson, the league’s best football power over the last decade, has to be there. The same is true of Florida State, with its historic and recent success in football. Then there’s North Carolina, which has the most attractive national brand in the ACC and – perhaps more importantly – would give this hypothetical Super League a foothold in a state where it currently doesn’t have one.

And I’m just going to say these three. Controversial? Perhaps. But if FSU and Florida are already included, what incentive does Super League have to add a third (private) program from the same state? One that has in no way matched the level of success of the other two over the past two decades? You also have to figure out that the SEC and Big Ten are contributing somewhere around 20 to 30 of these teams, so there’s a lot of room. – Brands

How many ACC teams make the CFP this year? And are you excited about the new playoff format? -Brett W.

Initially, it took a little convincing that the College Football Playoff was worth expanding, but after Florida State got ripped off last season, I’m excited to see more teams get a chance — even if I think the same few will stick around. to beat him. As for who in the ACC could take the field this year, I’m going with the two teams most likely to compete for the league title: Clemson and Florida State. We could be in for a surprise if Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik and former Clemson and now FSU quarterback DJ Uiagalelei hit their stride.

Manny, on the other hand, had a racier response when I polled our group.

“It will be Miami and FSU,” he said. “The last year of the ACC as we know it. Reserve. Finally.” – Raynor

Is there a competitive advantage in Clemson’s approach to the portal? I compare the Tigers to Colorado. The latter is a revolving door where guys are always in the spotlight. Clemson might pitch, “Come here and we’ll develop you. You don’t need to look over your shoulder. Do the repetitions and you will earn your photos. I have to imagine this appeals to a lot of kids and especially the types of kids Clemson recruits. -Hunter W.

Excellent points, Hunter. It has to help Clemson’s recruiting efforts to tell high school football players, “We want you, not transfers. Come here and you won’t lose your spot to an older player.” But it is completely untenable for Clemson to remain a non-player in the transfer portal and still compete for national championships. It’s as if an NBA, NFL or MLB team declared: “We’re only going to use the draft to supplement our rosters and allow players, when they reach their fourth or fifth season, to walk free.”

Every championship team needs seniors, and in college football, if you’re a special player, you usually leave after your third year. Dabo Swinney’s approach worked in the pre-portal era when free agency wasn’t rampant. No more. You can’t replace a talented third or fourth year player with a freshman and expect the freshman to play like a junior or senior. Especially when you’re still losing guys to the portal and the draft. There are many holes to fill. – Navarro

In the next few years, assuming FSU and Clemson find a way to leave, how likely is an ACC Western Division with Cal, Stanford, Oregon State, Washington State and perhaps a Texas school like Rice or UTSA? -Michael H.

Wait, I love that idea. I don’t know what the odds are, but I’m not sure anything in college football could surprise me anymore. Oregon State and Washington State need a place to land anyway, and if Clemson and Florida State jump, the ACC should simply be left completely unbalanced. Give me late-night Pac-12 vibes, but every hour of every day. – Raynor

(North Carolina vs. NC State and Clemson vs. Florida State photos: Lance King, John Byrum/Icon Sportswire/Getty Images)