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Science

The Science Behind Predicting and Changing Human Behavior • Earth.com


Have you ever felt that sinking feeling when another crisis hits and leaders seem to have no idea how to actually change people’s behavior? We know that changing the way people think and act is vital, but the usual tactics never seem to work.

Professor Dolores Albarracín, from the University of Pennsylvania, has news for us: there is science to this and we have been doing it all wrong.

Influencing people

This research challenges many of our ingrained assumptions about how to influence people. For example, spending time and effort to change what people believe often has surprisingly little impact on how they actually behave.

It turns out that focusing on practical aspects, like building new habits and removing obstacles that get in people’s way, is much more effective.

The implications here are enormous. This isn’t just a debate about whether people will get vaccinated or choose more environmentally friendly options. It’s about fundamentally changing the way policymakers and communities approach problems. It provides us with a powerful set of evidence-based tools to create real change in people’s lives. If this sounds exciting, keep reading!

How the behavior works

To change the way people behave, we need to understand two main types of factors that influence them:

Individual determinants

These are the internal building blocks that shape each person’s actions. They include things like what someone already knows about a topic, the attitudes and beliefs they have formed, and the practical skills they have (or those they may need to learn).

Socio-structural determinants

These are the external forces and systems that surround us, creating the context in which we live. They consist of legal frameworks and policies that restrict or encourage certain behaviors, social pressure to conform to what others do (norms), and whether resources essential for change are readily accessible (such as health care, education, or supportive communities). ).

To understand the interaction, think of individual factors as the ingredients a person brings to the table – their knowledge, mindset, and skills. The socio-structural factors are similar to the kitchen itself – the tools available, the rules they must follow, and the broader environment that supports or hinders their efforts.

Educate to change behavior

Let’s look at the different ways we can target people’s individual thoughts and motivations and how these efforts translate into real results. Researchers classify the impact of these strategies as “negligible”, “small”, “medium” or “large” when it comes to influencing behavior:

Individual Factors

  • Negligible effect: Trying to influence people through broader knowledge, general attitudes or teaching generic skills shows surprisingly little effect on their actions. In other words, facts alone or vague “awareness campaigns” are unlikely to make much of an impact.
  • Small-Medium Effect: Strategies focused on shaping people’s attitudes toward a specific behavior (such as thinking that recycling is “good”) and helping them develop specific skills for that behavior demonstrate some impact, but it is limited.
  • Great Effect: Helping people form strong habits around a behavior has the biggest payoff. This means finding ways to make the desired action automatic and routine. Likewise, fostering deep associations between a behavior and concepts like “good” or “bad” can be extremely powerful.

This is a critical insight for anyone trying to encourage change. The emphasis should not be on simply letting people know more or expecting them to feel a certain way. It’s about incorporating actions into everyday life and creating strong mental links that guide decision-making.

Laws to change behavior

Let’s look at the external systems and influences that can motivate (or demotivate) behavior. As with individual factors, researchers measured the impact of different strategies as “insignificant”, “small”, “medium” or “large”:

Socio-structural factors

  • Negligible effect: Surprisingly, top-down approaches, such as imposing laws and regulations or trying to increase trust in institutions, have very little influence on people’s actions. This means that threats of punishment or making a government agency appear more trustworthy will not magically change people’s choices.
  • Small effect: Using social pressure through norms (“what everyone else is doing”) and offering incentives (like rewards) can have some effect, but it is quite limited.
  • Great Effect: Providing direct support networks and removing barriers to accessing essential resources has the most significant impact when it comes to behavior change. This could look like peer support groups for people trying to improve their health or make access to preventive health care easier and more affordable.

Rather than coercion or trying to control what goes on in people’s heads, the greatest potential for change lies in shaping the environment around them. Support systems and easy access to what is needed create an environment where desired behavior becomes the most natural and supported choice.

How do we change people’s behavior?

The old mindset, whether applied to individuals or society, centers on knowledge and coercion. Think of the endless warnings and information dumps, along with the assumption that punishment will scare people into compliance. However, this new research tells us that the approach is largely ineffective.

What really works is fundamental change. Instead of fixating on what people believe, we need to prioritize:

Creating automatic routines

Help people integrate desired actions into their daily lives to the point that they become second nature. When we perform an action repeatedly, it creates and strengthens connections in our brains, making it increasingly easier to perform it with less conscious thoughts. Think of it as creating a known path that you naturally follow.

The less we have to actively debate whether to do something, the more likely we are to do it without resistance. If exercising or eating healthy is automatic, we don’t need to fight internal arguments or willpower.

Habits are intertwined with how we see ourselves. A person whose daily routine includes physical activity comes to consider themselves someone who exercises, making the behavior part of their core identity.

Promote supportive communities

Humans are social creatures, and seeing others consistently demonstrate a desired behavior makes it seem more achievable and socially acceptable. This normalizes the behavior, making it seem like the natural thing to do.

Knowing that others expect us to act in a certain way provides positive social pressure. Support groups can offer encouragement, celebrate successes, and help overcome setbacks.

Community members become resources for problem solving, sharing tips and strategies that have worked and providing expertise or assistance to overcome challenges.

The feeling of belonging and connection promotes feelings of acceptance and encouragement. This combats isolation and builds resilience, so people are less likely to give up in the face of setbacks.

Removing barriers

Even if someone knows why a behavior is important and wants to change, practical obstacles can completely derail their efforts. It’s about what’s possible, not just what’s ideal.

People operate within existing systems and structures that can make adopting new behaviors extremely difficult. Think food deserts, lack of transportation, or complicated healthcare systems.

For many people, tangible changes to their environment will have a much greater impact than trying to change what they think or feel. This approach empowers positive actions even if immediate mindset shifts do not occur.

The key is to identify the specific obstacles people face and design interventions that dismantle them. This levels the playing field, making it possible for people to act on their intentions, regardless of their individual circumstances.

Let’s imagine the possibilities that this approach opens up:

  • Smoking cessation programs: Instead of bombarding smokers with grim statistics, they would focus on the nitty-gritty of establishing new routines and stress management techniques.
  • Climate initiatives: Forget endless guilt trips about carbon footprints. Green choices would become the easiest and most convenient default option for transportation, energy and daily living.
  • Health systems: Healthy living would be accessible and affordable for everyone, from regular checkups to nutritious food choices, regardless of income or insurance status.

The power of positive behavior change

This research is not intended to make us cynical. It’s about getting smarter. No more “common sense” approaches that never work. Instead, we have an evidence-based roadmap.

“Prior to this study, analyzes of behavior change efforts were limited to one domain, whether environmental science or public health. By analyzing research across multiple domains, we now have a clearer picture of how to encourage behavior change and make a difference in people’s lives,” says Professor Albarracín.

“Our research provides a map of what might be effective even for behaviors that no one has studied. Like masking, because it was a critical behavior during the pandemic but we had no research on masking, a broad empirical study of intervention effectiveness could guide future efforts for a range of behaviors that we have not studied directly but that need to be promoted during a crisis.”

Ultimately, it’s about understanding that changing the world starts with understanding the real mechanics of how we humans work. And now we have a much better manual.

The study is published in the journal Nature Reviews Psychology.

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